Economists have become more concerned about <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/us-economic-growth-seen-slowing-in-second-quarter-238552">US growth prospects,</a> citing trade friction as the major worry, but <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/dollar-steadies-after-data-knocks-it-off-two-year-highs-253268">recession risks</a> have receded slightly, according to a survey released Monday.

Nearly half of the panel surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics expect a recession before the end of next year, down from 60 per cent in the prior survey.

The panel expects the world's largest economy to slow, with growth falling below 2 per cent for the first time since 2016, the survey showed.

Recent data have shown the US labour market remains strong, but manufacturing is in recession while the larger services sector is slowing, giving rise to fears about the health of the <a href="https://www.wionews.com/opinions/could-a-weakening-us-economy-imperil-trumps-trade-war-against-china-226753">US economy</a>, especially amid President Donald Trump's grinding trade war with China and increasing tensions with Europe.

The NABE panel "turned decidedly more pessimistic about the outlook over the summer, with 80 per cent of participants viewing risks to the outlook as tilted to the downside," said Gregory Daco, the group's survey chair and chief US economist at Oxford Economics.

"The rise in protectionism, pervasive trade policy uncertainty, and slower global growth are considered key downside risks to US economic activity," he said in a statement on the findings in the quarterly survey.

Looking further out, 69 per cent of the panel expects a recession by mid-2021.

The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates twice this year and many market analysts expect more stimulus to be announced later this month, but the NABE panel was less convinced.

Daco said over 40 per cent anticipate at least one more rate cut this year, while three-quarters of respondents expect at least one rate cut by the end of 2020.

The median forecast by the panel is for growth of 2.3 per cent this year, slowing to 1.8 per cent next year after 85 per cent of the panel cut their real GDP projections.

Economists have become more concerned about US growth prospects, citing trade friction as the major worry, but recession risks have receded slightly, according to a survey released Monday.

Economists have become more concerned about US growth prospects, citing trade friction as the major worry, but recession risks have receded slightly, according to a survey released Monday. Nearly half of the panel surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics expect a recession before the end of next year, down from 60 per cent in the prior survey. The panel expects the world's largest economy to slow, with growth falling below 2 per cent for the first time since 2016, the survey showed. Recent data have shown the US labour market remains strong, but manufacturing is in recession while the larger services sector is slowing, giving rise to fears about the health of the US economy, especially amid President Donald Trump's grinding trade war with China and increasing tensions with Europe. The NABE panel "turned decidedly more pessimistic about the outlook over the summer, with 80 per cent of participants viewing risks to the outlook as tilted to the downside," said Gregory Daco, the group's survey chair and chief US economist at Oxford Economics. "The rise in protectionism, pervasive trade policy uncertainty, and slower global growth are considered key downside risks to US economic activity," he said in a statement on the findings in the quarterly survey. Looking further out, 69 per cent of the panel expects a recession by mid-2021. The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates twice this year and many market analysts expect more stimulus to be announced later this month, but the NABE panel was less convinced. Daco said over 40 per cent anticipate at least one more rate cut this year, while three-quarters of respondents expect at least one rate cut by the end of 2020. The median forecast by the panel is for growth of 2.3 per cent this year, slowing to 1.8 per cent next year after 85 per cent of the panel cut their real GDP projections.

US economists more pessimistic, citing trade as major risk: Survey

The US economy slowed sharply in the final three months of the year largely due to falling exports, pulling 2016 growth to its lowest since 2011, the Commerce Department reported on Friday.

The first estimate of Gross Domestic Product showed growth of 1.9 per cent in the October-December period, well below the 3.5 per cent pace of the third quarter, and short of the consensus estimate by analysts of 2.2 per cent.

For the full year, the economy expanded 1.6 per cent, a full point below the pace of 2015.

&quot;The deceleration of real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected a downturn in exports, an acceleration in imports... and a downturn in federal government spending,&quot; the report said.

Exports fell 4.3 per cent in the latest quarter, while imports rose eight per cent. Together those two factors subtracted 1.7 points from GDP in the quarter. Federal spending fell 1.2 per cent.

But the economy was buoyed by an 11 per cent surge in spending on durable goods, like large appliances, and a 10 per cent jump in residential investment.

The tepid growth for the fourth quarter would seem to confirm the expectation that the Federal Reserve will hold off on another interest rate increase, when central bankers meet next week, after they raised the benchmark rate in December for only the second time in a decade.

However, the Fed&#39;s preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, jumped to 2.2 per cent the final quarter of the year, from 1.5 per cent in the prior quarter, which is above the Fed&#39;s 2.0 percent target and the highest since early 2012.&nbsp;

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the so-called core PCE price index slowed to 1.3 percent from 1.7 per cent in the third quarter.

For the full year, the price index increased 1.1 per cent compared to 2015, while the core was up 1.7 per cent, the fastest since 2012.

In a separate report, the Commerce Department said new orders for durable goods fell 0.4 percent in December, which is consistent with the GDP data but likely will surprise analysts who expected a three percent increase.

However, when transportation products are excluded, new orders rose 0.5 per cent. The figure jumped 1.7 per cent when defence is removed from the data.

(AFP)

The first estimate of Gross Domestic Product showed growth of 1.9% in the final quarter

The US economy slowed sharply in the final three months of the year largely due to falling exports, pulling 2016 growth to its lowest since 2011, the Commerce Department reported on Friday. The first estimate of Gross Domestic Product showed growth of 1.9 per cent in the October-December period, well below the 3.5 per cent pace of the third quarter, and short of the consensus estimate by analysts of 2.2 per cent. For the full year, the economy expanded 1.6 per cent, a full point below the pace of 2015. "The deceleration of real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected a downturn in exports, an acceleration in imports... and a downturn in federal government spending," the report said. Exports fell 4.3 per cent in the latest quarter, while imports rose eight per cent. Together those two factors subtracted 1.7 points from GDP in the quarter. Federal spending fell 1.2 per cent. But the economy was buoyed by an 11 per cent surge in spending on durable goods, like large appliances, and a 10 per cent jump in residential investment. The tepid growth for the fourth quarter would seem to confirm the expectation that the Federal Reserve will hold off on another interest rate increase, when central bankers meet next week, after they raised the benchmark rate in December for only the second time in a decade. However, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, jumped to 2.2 per cent the final quarter of the year, from 1.5 per cent in the prior quarter, which is above the Fed's 2.0 percent target and the highest since early 2012. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the so-called core PCE price index slowed to 1.3 percent from 1.7 per cent in the third quarter. For the full year, the price index increased 1.1 per cent compared to 2015, while the core was up 1.7 per cent, the fastest since 2012. In a separate report, the Commerce Department said new orders for durable goods fell 0.4 percent in December, which is consistent with the GDP data but likely will surprise analysts who expected a three percent increase. However, when transportation products are excluded, new orders rose 0.5 per cent. The figure jumped 1.7 per cent when defence is removed from the data. (AFP)

US economy posts slowest growth since 2011

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US economists more pessimistic, citing trade as major risk: Survey

US economy posts slowest growth since 2011