The Reserve Bank of India is expected to keep key policy rates unchanged at its upcoming monetary policy review meeting, slated for February 4-6, 2026, according to Crisil. The monetary policy committee had reduced the repo rate by 25 basis points in its December meeting to 5.25 per cent. Their policy stance remained neutral, indicating a data-dependent approach going ahead.&nbsp;"We expect the RBI to stay put on policy rates given the creep up in inflation," Crisil said in a report. India's retail inflation rose from 0.71 per cent in November to 1.33 per cent in December, marking a moderate uptick. Though it remained below the RBI's target range of 2-4 per cent.&nbsp;RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra in December characterised India's current macroeconomic moment as a "rare goldilocks period", which currently marks high economic growth and exceptionally low inflation. Given strong growth reported inthe July-September quarter, the RBI raised its GDP growth projection at 7.3 per cent for the full year, up by half a percentage point.&nbsp;Against this backdrop, Crisil expect India's GDP growth to moderate to 6.7 per cent next fiscal compared with the first advance estimate of 7.4 per cent this fiscal. "Challenging global trade environment, moderating domestic fiscal support and waning support from statistical factors, namely a low base and this fiscal's low deflator, are expected to drag growth next fiscal. However, nominal growth is expected to be higher due to rising inflation," Crisil said. The National Statistics Office's first advance estimates pegged real GDP growth at 7.4 per cent for this fiscal 2025-26, compared with 6.5 per cent last fiscal.&nbsp;Moving on to inflation, Crisil expects India's retail inflation to rise to 5.0 per cent next fiscal 2026-27 from an estimated 2.5 per cent in the current fiscal 2025-26. "Low food inflation of this fiscal should lend a statistical lift to inflation next year. However, softer commodity prices and continued impact of the Goods and Services Tax rationalisation should keep inflation within the RBI's target band," it said.&nbsp;Crisil also gave a view on crude oil prices. It expects crude oil prices to remain benign this fiscal, averaging USD 62-67 per barrel. In calendar 2026, it sees prices averaging USD 60-65 per barrel. Brent crude oil prices fell to USD 62.7 per barrel average in December, down 1.4 per cent month-on-month and 15.1 per cent year-on-year. At the time of filing this report, crude oil traded at USD 59 per barrel.&nbsp;Disclaimer: This story has been published from a news agency feed with minimal edits to adhere to WION's style guide. The headline may have been changed to better reflect the content of the story or to make it more suitable for the WION audience.

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra in December characterised India's current macroeconomic moment as a "rare goldilocks period", which currently marks high economic growth and exceptionally low inflation.

The Reserve Bank of India is expected to keep key policy rates unchanged at its upcoming monetary policy review meeting, slated for February 4-6, 2026, according to Crisil. The monetary policy committee had reduced the repo rate by 25 basis points in its December meeting to 5.25 per cent. Their policy stance remained neutral, indicating a data-dependent approach going ahead. "We expect the RBI to stay put on policy rates given the creep up in inflation," Crisil said in a report. India's retail inflation rose from 0.71 per cent in November to 1.33 per cent in December, marking a moderate uptick. Though it remained below the RBI's target range of 2-4 per cent. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra in December characterised India's current macroeconomic moment as a "rare goldilocks period", which currently marks high economic growth and exceptionally low inflation. Given strong growth reported inthe July-September quarter, the RBI raised its GDP growth projection at 7.3 per cent for the full year, up by half a percentage point. Against this backdrop, Crisil expect India's GDP growth to moderate to 6.7 per cent next fiscal compared with the first advance estimate of 7.4 per cent this fiscal. "Challenging global trade environment, moderating domestic fiscal support and waning support from statistical factors, namely a low base and this fiscal's low deflator, are expected to drag growth next fiscal. However, nominal growth is expected to be higher due to rising inflation," Crisil said. The National Statistics Office's first advance estimates pegged real GDP growth at 7.4 per cent for this fiscal 2025-26, compared with 6.5 per cent last fiscal. Moving on to inflation, Crisil expects India's retail inflation to rise to 5.0 per cent next fiscal 2026-27 from an estimated 2.5 per cent in the current fiscal 2025-26. "Low food inflation of this fiscal should lend a statistical lift to inflation next year. However, softer commodity prices and continued impact of the Goods and Services Tax rationalisation should keep inflation within the RBI's target band," it said. Crisil also gave a view on crude oil prices. It expects crude oil prices to remain benign this fiscal, averaging USD 62-67 per barrel. In calendar 2026, it sees prices averaging USD 60-65 per barrel. Brent crude oil prices fell to USD 62.7 per barrel average in December, down 1.4 per cent month-on-month and 15.1 per cent year-on-year. At the time of filing this report, crude oil traded at USD 59 per barrel. Disclaimer: This story has been published from a news agency feed with minimal edits to adhere to WION's style guide. The headline may have been changed to better reflect the content of the story or to make it more suitable for the WION audience.

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra in December characterised India's current macroeconomic moment as a "rare goldilocks period", which currently marks high economic growth and exceptionally low inflation.

RBI likely to hold rates in February as inflation edges up; no rate cut expected: Crisil

The Reserve Bank of India kept its policy rates on hold for the fourth straight meeting on Thursday and retained its "neutral" stance even as inflationary pressures have eased more than expected.

The RBI kept its policy repo rate unchanged at 6.00 percent, its lowest since November 2010, as unanimously expected by 61 respondents in a Reuters poll.

The reverse repo rate also remained unchanged at 5.75 percent. 
Five of six members on the monetary policy committee voted for a hold, while one wanted a hike in the repo rate.

Inflation concerns have eased substantially following a crash in vegetable prices which is expected to keep price pressures soft for the next few months.

However, oil prices remain a risk, with India importing about 80 percent of its crude requirement.

Bonds rose after the RBI`s statement, while the rupee firmed and stocks extended early gains.

The 10-year benchmark bond yield fell to 7.19 percent from 7.28 percent before the announcement, while the rupee was trading at 64.95 to the dollar from 65.04 before. The main market index was up 1.8 percent.

INFLATION EASING, GROWTH

The RBI projected economic growth of 7.4 percent for the current fiscal year that began on April 1.

It also lowered its April-September inflation projection to 4.7-5.1 percent from February`s 5.1-5.6 percent.

After hitting a 17-month high in December, retail inflation eased for the second straight month in February and by more than expected, to a four-month low of 4.44 percent. But it was still higher than the central bank's medium-term target of 4 percent.

That has prompted most market watchers to push back their forecasts for a rate hike to early 2019, from earlier estimates of the second half of this year.

While inflation fears have eased in the short-term, the RBI sounded cautious and opted to wait for more data instead of giving a clear indication of its policy path.

"The MPC reiterates its commitment to achieving the medium-term target for headline inflation of 4 percent on a durable basis," the RBI said in a statement.

The RBI is also mindful of the pace of India`s economic recovery, after a loan-fraud scandal worth over $2 billion at the country`s second-largest state lender Punjab National Bank.

Greater regulatory scrutiny in the wake of the scandal could make banks more wary of lending, slowing down business activity after India`s economy grew 7.2 percent in the October-December, its fastest in five quarters.&nbsp;

RBI has kept the repo rate unchanged at 6% in the first monetary policy review of the current fiscal year, amid a gradual recovery in growth and easing inflation

The Reserve Bank of India kept its policy rates on hold for the fourth straight meeting on Thursday and retained its "neutral" stance even as inflationary pressures have eased more than expected. The RBI kept its policy repo rate unchanged at 6.00 percent, its lowest since November 2010, as unanimously expected by 61 respondents in a Reuters poll. The reverse repo rate also remained unchanged at 5.75 percent. Five of six members on the monetary policy committee voted for a hold, while one wanted a hike in the repo rate. Inflation concerns have eased substantially following a crash in vegetable prices which is expected to keep price pressures soft for the next few months. However, oil prices remain a risk, with India importing about 80 percent of its crude requirement. Bonds rose after the RBI`s statement, while the rupee firmed and stocks extended early gains. The 10-year benchmark bond yield fell to 7.19 percent from 7.28 percent before the announcement, while the rupee was trading at 64.95 to the dollar from 65.04 before. The main market index was up 1.8 percent. INFLATION EASING, GROWTH The RBI projected economic growth of 7.4 percent for the current fiscal year that began on April 1. It also lowered its April-September inflation projection to 4.7-5.1 percent from February`s 5.1-5.6 percent. After hitting a 17-month high in December, retail inflation eased for the second straight month in February and by more than expected, to a four-month low of 4.44 percent. But it was still higher than the central bank's medium-term target of 4 percent. That has prompted most market watchers to push back their forecasts for a rate hike to early 2019, from earlier estimates of the second half of this year. While inflation fears have eased in the short-term, the RBI sounded cautious and opted to wait for more data instead of giving a clear indication of its policy path. "The MPC reiterates its commitment to achieving the medium-term target for headline inflation of 4 percent on a durable basis," the RBI said in a statement. The RBI is also mindful of the pace of India`s economic recovery, after a loan-fraud scandal worth over $2 billion at the country`s second-largest state lender Punjab National Bank. Greater regulatory scrutiny in the wake of the scandal could make banks more wary of lending, slowing down business activity after India`s economy grew 7.2 percent in the October-December, its fastest in five quarters.

RBI keeps repo rate unchanged at 6% in first bi-monthly monetary policy for 2018-19

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to keep interest rates on hold on Thursday for the fourth meeting in a row but maintain a cautious tone despite a sharper-than-expected pullback in inflation in the last few months.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to stick with its 'neutral' stance and flag uncertainty over the inflation outlook beyond June due to factors such as oil prices and the government's promise of increasing the minimum purchase price of foodgrains from farmers.

A Reuters poll showed all 61 respondents expected the RBI to keep the repo rate steady at 6 percent, its lowest level since November 2010. A majority of the economists polled expect the RBI to only start raising rates in early 2019.

"We expect the policy guidance and tone to be balanced and similar to that in February," said A. Prasanna, chief economist at ICICI Securities Primary Dealership, referring to the RBI's projection that inflation will moderate from October onward but with upside risks.

"Accordingly, the MPC will again vote for status quo with a preference to wait for more clarity on key risks."

Inflation unexpectedly fell after vegetable prices fell in early 2018 due to a surge in harvests. This is expected to keep price pressures soft for the next few months.

However, oil prices remain a risk, since India imports nearly 80 percent of its crude oil requirement.

It is noteworthy that February's consumer price index (CPI) inflation fell to a four-month low of 4.44 percent, and is also expected to stay behind the RBI's projection of 5.1-5.6 percent for April-September, the RBI is unlikely to lower its guard as it aims to lower inflation to 4 percent in the medium term.

The RBI will also be mindful of the pace of India's economic recovery as banks are likely to go slow on lending after a loan-fraud scandal worth over $2 billion at the country's second largest state lender Punjab National Bank.

That could slow down activity after India grew the fastest in five quarters at 7.2 percent.

"There can be some dent in the risk appetite among banks to give loans after the issues related to loan fraud were detected, which could add uncertainties to the pace of the near term recovery," said Siddhartha Sanyal, chief India economist at Barclays in Mumbai.

"We expect that policymakers will be careful of not stifling growth at the early stages of recovery," adding that he expected the RBI to be on hold for all of 2018.

RBI is likely to keep interest rates on hold on Thursday for the fourth meeting in a row but maintain a cautious tone despite a pullback in inflation.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to keep interest rates on hold on Thursday for the fourth meeting in a row but maintain a cautious tone despite a sharper-than-expected pullback in inflation in the last few months. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to stick with its 'neutral' stance and flag uncertainty over the inflation outlook beyond June due to factors such as oil prices and the government's promise of increasing the minimum purchase price of foodgrains from farmers. A Reuters poll showed all 61 respondents expected the RBI to keep the repo rate steady at 6 percent, its lowest level since November 2010. A majority of the economists polled expect the RBI to only start raising rates in early 2019. "We expect the policy guidance and tone to be balanced and similar to that in February," said A. Prasanna, chief economist at ICICI Securities Primary Dealership, referring to the RBI's projection that inflation will moderate from October onward but with upside risks. "Accordingly, the MPC will again vote for status quo with a preference to wait for more clarity on key risks." Inflation unexpectedly fell after vegetable prices fell in early 2018 due to a surge in harvests. This is expected to keep price pressures soft for the next few months. However, oil prices remain a risk, since India imports nearly 80 percent of its crude oil requirement. It is noteworthy that February's consumer price index (CPI) inflation fell to a four-month low of 4.44 percent, and is also expected to stay behind the RBI's projection of 5.1-5.6 percent for April-September, the RBI is unlikely to lower its guard as it aims to lower inflation to 4 percent in the medium term. The RBI will also be mindful of the pace of India's economic recovery as banks are likely to go slow on lending after a loan-fraud scandal worth over $2 billion at the country's second largest state lender Punjab National Bank. That could slow down activity after India grew the fastest in five quarters at 7.2 percent. "There can be some dent in the risk appetite among banks to give loans after the issues related to loan fraud were detected, which could add uncertainties to the pace of the near term recovery," said Siddhartha Sanyal, chief India economist at Barclays in Mumbai. "We expect that policymakers will be careful of not stifling growth at the early stages of recovery," adding that he expected the RBI to be on hold for all of 2018.

RBI to keep rates on hold, sounds cautious despite easing inflation