Data Lab | The case of Afghan refugees: Where do they move to?

An international outcry was sparked by pictures showing thousands of Afghans frantically attempting to flee their country in the wake of a hasty American pullout in 2021.

Approximately 6,000 American soldiers were working to evacuate American citizens, members of the military, and Afghans who had been granted Special Immigrant Visas (SIV) as of August 22, 2021. SIVs are a unique programme created to safeguard Afghans who put their lives in danger while working for American forces in Afghanistan.

These poorly planned evacuations moved slowly. They are taking place in the midst of mayhem in Kabul, where people were being attacked by members of the now-reigning Taliban and American forces and were forced to navigate checkpoints that are nearly impassable.

The Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission's Shaharzad Akbar described the situation as "failure upon failure."

United States’ stance

The United States Refugee Act of 1980 established a strict vetting process and standardised the procedures for admitting refugees—people who have fled war, violence, conflict, or persecution—to the country. However, the number of refugees accepted by the United States has substantially decreased over the previous 40 years, from 200,000 in 1980 to less than 50,000 in 2019.

The United States has taken in more than 20,000 Afghan refugees over the previous 20 years, on average about 1,000 every year. However, only 11,800 refugees from all over the world arrived in the United States during the fiscal year 2020–2021, and only 495 of them were granted Afghan Special Immigrant Visas.

Afghan refugees in Europe

Afghans have also migrated or fled to Europe for many years. Almost 300,000 of them landed on the continent between 2015 and 2016. After Syrians, they made up the second-largest group of migrants and asylum seekers. People who are seeking asylum are those whose applications for refugee status have not yet been processed.

The Afghan population in Europe is still relatively tiny and is dispersed unevenly. Many Afghans were on the verge of expulsion prior to the Taliban taking control of Kabul in August 2021. The largest host nation in Europe is Germany, which is followed by Austria, France, and Sweden.

Approximately 7,000 Afghans received permanent or temporary legal status in the European Union during the first three months of 2021. Greece, France, Germany, and Italy are where the majority of them are stationed, with smaller Afghan contingents in other EU nations.

According to the 2016 census, there are about 47,000 Afghan permanent residents in Australia, some of whom arrived as early as 1979. Another 4,200 Afghans, roughly, have been granted temporary protected status.

Safe haven for Afghan refugees - Pakistan

Most Afghan refugees do not choose to live in the West.

Despite not being a signatory to either the 1967 Protocol or the 1951 Refugee Convention, Pakistan has long hosted the majority of Afghan refugees due to its 1,640-mile land border with Afghanistan. After the war started in 1979 as a result of the rising of the Mujahideen, 1.5 million Afghans fled their country two years prior to the Soviet invasion. By 1986, Pakistan and Iran had received close to five million Afghan refugees.

The UNHCR, or United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, has repatriated approximately 3.2 million Afghans since March 2002; but, as of April 2021, the UN claimed that more than 1.4 million Afghan refugees were still living in Pakistan because of continued conflict and high unemployment.

Internally displaced Afghans

There are still a sizable number of displaced Afghans who do not have permanent residence. According to the United Nations refugee agency, the violence has caused more than 500,000 people to be displaced thus far in 2021. Approximately 80% of the nearly 25,000 Afghans forced to evacuate since the end of May are women and children.

At least 3.5 million Afghans were still living outside of their home country as of 2021, before the current crisis, as a result of political upheaval, poverty, the climatic issue, and a lack of job opportunities.

Situation now

According to the AP's most recent statistics, the 20-year Afghan war has claimed the lives of more than 47,000 Afghan civilians and at least 66,000 members of the Afghan military and police.

In recent years, the nation's security situation has gotten worse. The Cost of War Project at Brown University reports that improvised explosive devices, crossfire, assassinations by militant groups like the Taliban, nighttime raids by US and NATO forces, and U.S.-led airstrikes have all resulted in an increase in the number of Afghan deaths.

Civilian casualties have increased by 29 per cent in the first quarter of 2021 compared to the same time in 2020 even before the Taliban took control of Kabul. According to a United Nations report from July 26, 2021, child casualties had increased by 23 per cent and the number of women killed and injured had increased by 37 per cent when compared to the first quarter of 2020.

Concern for the safety of Afghan women and girls, members of ethnic minorities, journalists, public servants, teachers, and human rights activists has increased since the Taliban took control of Kabul. There are still many Afghans outside of Kabul and far from any airport who are yearning to go.

The following nations have also committed to temporarily accepting a small number of Afghans: Albania, Qatar, Costa Rica, Mexico, Chile, Ecuador, and Colombia. Uganda has agreed to temporarily house 2,000 Afghans in addition to the 1.5 million refugees it already supports, most of whom are South Sudanese.

In the end, the majority of Afghans who are able to leave the country will do so on foot into Pakistan and Iran rather than through aircraft. The major host country for the most recent Afghan refugees will likely once again be Pakistan, which is already under pressure from its own economic and political problems.

But the majority of uprooted Afghans will stay inside Afghanistan's borders because crossing the border in that area is challenging and dangerous. The next chapter in the history of the nation will be shaped by their significant humanitarian needs, economic and political difficulties, security worries, and resistance to the Taliban.