Scientists say sun's activity peaking sooner than expected, likely in 2024: Report

Scientists have said that the sun's activity is peaking sooner than expected. According to a report by CNN on Friday (July 14), initially, the peak activity was forecast to begin in July 2025, but now experts believe the peak is more likely to take place in mid-to-late 2024. Every 11 years, the sun experiences periods of low and high solar activity that is associated with the amount of sunspots on its surface.

Throughout a solar cycle, the sun would transition from a calm to an intense and active period. The report said that during the peak period, the sun’s magnetic poles flip.

Current solar cycle full of activity

The report added that Solar Cycle 25 - which is the current solar cycle - has been full of activity, more so than expected. Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center in Colorado tracked more sunspots than those counted at the peak ofthe previous cycle.

Speaking to CNN, scientist Mark Miesch said that no two solar cycles are the same. “This solar maximum is the space weather equivalent of hurricane season. It’s when we see the biggest storms. But unlike hurricane season, which lasts a few months, solar maximum lasts a few years,” Miesch added.

The report highlighted that as solar maximum nears, sunspot clumps would form with increasingly greater frequency leading to a boost of activity. “As we become more dependent on technology, on electrical power grids, on satellites, on aircraft and on GPS, the impacts of space weather increase because these are the kinds of systems that are affected by solar storms,” Miesch also said.

The predictions

The new predictions for solar maximum were led by Scott McIntosh, deputy director of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and Robert Leamon, an associate research scientist at the Goddard Planetary Heliophysics Institute, along with their collaborators.

The CNN report said that rather than tracking sunspots, the researchers focused on what they called the terminator- it isa point when activity from one solar cycle disappears from the sun's surface,followed by a sharp increase in solar activity in the new cycle.

Sunspots are regarded as a keystone of solar cycle prediction, but Robert Leamon believes that tracking the magnetic activity that leads to the sunspots could yield more accurate predictions.

And once the solar maximum is reached, the activity can persist for years. Leamon said thatthe number of solar flares peaks after the maximum.“The peak of consequence is after maximum by a couple of years, so the biggest effects here on Earth will happen after maximum,” he added.

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