Global decline in fertility rates to create a ‘demographically divided world’: Study

A recent study, published in the journal The Lancet predicts that the number of children born to women globally will keep dropping, leading to a significant change in the world's population makeup.

Since 1950, fertility rates have been going down worldwide, from 4.84 children per woman to 2.23 in 2021. According to the study which is based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 by 2100, the fertility rate is expected to go down even further to 1.59.

Why are the fertility rates decreasing?

The factors that contribute to the decreasing rates include:

• Increased education and job opportunities for women
• Better access to contraception
• Changing views on family size
• Cost of raising children

How will the decreasing fertility rates impact the world?

To maintain stable population numbers, countries need a fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman which is known as replacement level. Once the rates drop below this level, the population size starts to shrink. By 2100, nearly all countries (97%) are projected to have fertility rates below replacement level, leading to population declines globally. Currently, 46% of countries have a fertility rate below the replacement level.

Since the decline is not even, the world will face a demographic divide with high-income countries that have low fertility rates, facing challenges with aging populationand workforce shortages, and low-income regions seeing a rise in births, straining resources.

Dr. Teresa Castro Martín, a professor at the Institute of Economics, Geography, and Demography of the Spanish National Research Council told CNN, “An important contribution of the study is to highlight the demographic contrast between the richest countries (with very low fertility) and the poorest countries (with still high fertility).”

While a shrinking population may reduce strain on resources and carbon emissions, increased consumption per capita could offset these gains.

How to combat the demographic divide?

While immigration encouragement and technological innovations could ease economic impacts. Pro-natal policies such as childcare subsidies, extended parental leave and tax incentives show limited effectiveness in boosting fertility rates.

“There is a real threat in some governments trying to pressure women to have more children. “It’s very easy to go from encouraging women to have more children to being a little bit more coercive,” Dr. Christopher Murray, senior author of the study told CNN.