Antarctica ice sheet might avert dramatic collapse, but it will disappear

A disastrous scenario involving Antarctica's gigantic ice sheet is recounted every time there is talk of climate change. This sheet is likely to break apart in the future which will prove catastrophic to the world’s coasts. Scientists describe the event as one where after the floating edges of these ice sheets melt away, all that would be left are huge cliffs of ice.

These tall and steep cliffs would be left unstable and slowly, massive chunks of ice will start breaking away. This cycle will continue until everything breaks apart and falls into the ocean. Combined with high levels of emissions of heat-trapping gases, the event in Antarctica will add more than a foot to sea levels across the world by the end of the century.

United Nations’ latest assessment of sea-level increase includes this possible scenario as a “low-likelihood, high-impact” possibility. However, the chain of events is still only a theory.

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Now, a group of scientists says that this occurrence might not happen as envisioned and the likelihood of it happening in the above-described manner is remote. This does not mean that Antarctica's ice will not be affected by the increasing temperature of our planet. However, according to new evidence, the ice cliffs might not collapse one after another.

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“The Antarctic ice sheet is going to disappear; this is going to happen. The question is how fast," Mathieu Morlighem, a professor of earth science at Dartmouth College and research leader, said.

What will happen to the Antarctic ice sheet?

Dr. Morlighem says how ice breaks apart under stress is still unclear. So the world may or may not have a lot of time to act against it and take steps to stay safe. In any case, the disintegration of this ice will have a huge impact on our civilisation and the environment.

Thwaites Glacier formed the focus of the study. It is the size of Florida and among the fastest receding and unstable in Antarctica. They ran simulations on two “worst-case scenarios” for Thwaites. In the first, they tested what would happen if the glacier’s floating edge completely disappeared today.

Then they tested the aftermath if the shelf vanished in 2065. In the latter case, the glacier would expose ice cliffs higher than the ones currently near the water’s edge.

They found that once the ice shelf goes away, the rest of the ice also starts melting away and flowing more quickly into the sea. The cliffs do not get a chance to become taller and so no runaway breakdown happens.