Antarctica likely warming much faster than climate change models predicted: Study

Antarctica is likely warming much faster than the predictions made by climate change models. Citing a study, a report by The Guardian on Thursday (September 7) said that scientists analysed 78 Antarctic ice cores to recreate temperatures going back 1,000 years and found the warming across the continent was outside what could be expected from natural swings.

The scientists analysed these ice cores that hold a record of temperature and then compared those temperatures to climate models and observations. The study found that Antarctica was warming at a rate of between 0.22°C and 0.32°C per decade, compared to 0.18°C per decade predicted by climate models.

Dr Mathieu Casado, the lead author of the study, said scientists found direct evidence that Antarctica was also now undergoing polar amplification. Dr Casado, who works at France's Science du Climat et de l’Environnement, added that it was extremely concerning to see such significant warming in Antarctica, beyond natural variability.

The Guardian reported that in West Antarctica, a region considered particularly vulnerable to warming with an ice sheet that could push up global sea levels by several metres if it collapsed,warming could be at twice the rate suggested by climate models.

Dr Sarah Jackson of the Australian National University, who was not part of the study, described the findings as deeply concerning and said, “All our projections for future sea level rise use these low rates of warming. Our models might be underestimating the loss of ice that we might get."

Meanwhile, Dr Danielle Udy from the University of Tasmania, who was also not involved in the study, said the research was timely “given the extreme events we have been seeing in Antarctica.”

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