Russia-Ukraine war anniversary: Why this former diplomat thinks Putin's nuclear threat ‘is more of a hoax’

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday sent out a hard-hitting message to the West and talked about suspending a nuclear arms control pact that it holds with the US, the New START treaty.

"... if the United States conducts tests, then we will. No one should have dangerous illusions that global strategic parity can be destroyed," Putin said.

This once again heightened concerns over a possible nuclear threat as the world's two main nuclear powers come face-to-face.

But how real are Putin's threats?

India's former ambassador to Turkey and Uzbekistan and Author of “Uncle Sam's Nuclear Cabin”, M.K. Bhadrakumar, spoke with WION and shared his razor-sharp observations on what significance Putin's nuclear threats have. He also spoke about the US thinking and how India's steadfast position on the Ukraine war reflects the nation’s well-founded foreign policy.

The envoy cut to the chase and said, "The nuclear threat is more of a hoax."

"It is political. One must understand that Russians have a clear nuclear doctrine, which is registered with the UN and is the country’s legislation as well. Putin or anyone cannot change it arbitrarily."

The world first believed that Russia would capture Ukraine in a matter of days but now discussions are around whether Putin's nuclear threat is real and can actually lead to a global disaster.

Bhadrakumar detailed what Russia's doctrine actually entails. "It spells out very clearly that nuclear power will be used in certain situations. Like, if the Russian state comes under threat or its existence is in danger, and the Ukraine conflict does not really come to that."

When can a shift really happen in the nuke status quo?

The former diplomat said the doctrine can "only change if there is a direct NATO intervention in Ukraine."

"(US President Joe) Biden is quite mindful of it and that is why he keeps saying that there is no question of putting boots on the ground or NATO interfering in the war."

In any case, Bhadrakumar pointed out, even if the US wants, the other NATO powers are not going to go along with it.

"They know a confrontation of that kind between NATO and Russia will develop into a nuclear confrontation and Europe will be in the crossfire."

Nuclear threat: A propaganda tool

Nuclear threat, the former envoy said, is propaganda to create certain narratives.

By talking about the suspension of the New START treaty, Putin has put the ball in the American court, he said. "Now Biden cannot go on and escalatebecause if he escalates now, Russians will walk out of the New START treaty completely."

The Russian foreign ministry issued a statementafter Putin’s treaty suspension speech, clarifying that they will nonetheless observe the terms of the treaty till 2026.

“That (talk of New START treaty suspension) is clearly to compel the US to exercise self-restraint because if US goes ahead and escalates like this and Russians walk out, then Europe is in a mess. Europe has two nuclear powers and Germany and Italy will also now want nuclear deterrence of their own, then what happens with NATO? NATO becomes redundant."

He stressed that Americans know all this. "It is a different ball game that is being played there. What Russians have done is to compel the US to strategically engage with Russia and that means all issues connected to security will be on the table."

"This is nothing about nuclear war, this is more about nuclear diplomacy."

By nuclear diplomacy, he said, Russians hope to bring matters to the negotiating table.

"Security is not divisible, like you cannot just handle nuclear security, there has to be mutual trust, mutual confidence, various underpinnings have to be built into it and so on but the Americans will have no choice but to engage with Russians.”

“Russians will then say you can not give long-range weapons to Ukraine and you cannot induct Ukraine as a NATO member and so on."

Searching for a thaw? The Nuland interview

Speaking about US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland's interview with TASS news agency, the envoy said, if one looks closely they will note that there are many backdoor talks which go on.

Notably, in an interview with the agency, Nuland said that the United States is ready to start talks with Russia on the New START nuclear arms control treaty "tomorrow" without preconditions and accusations if Moscow is prepared for this.

"She would not have said it without instructions from Biden himself."

He said that Americans are now ready to talk as otherwise, it can lead to the demolition of NATO and the transatlantic system and all nuclear threshold states in Europe like Turkey, Poland, Germany, and Italy will all become nuclear states. "And if there is no nuclear architecture everyone will go for deterrent capability on its own."

And then what happens?

He said, "It will be free for all."

"And what is the requirement of an alliance if all develop their own deterrent capabilities?" the envoy questioned.

"South Arabia will go for it, Iran, South Korea... so many threshold states are there... Egypt."

"Americans know that after that, there conventional superiority... military superiority becomes irrelevant."

"And if the other side has nuclear capabilities they checkmate American power. So this is the brilliant game that the Russians have played by bringing these things to the fore. So there are no winners after this."

He underscored that the conventional military superiority of the US cannot be translated in geopolitical terms.

"Saddam Hussein did not have weapons (of mass destruction)....suppose Saddam Hussain had weapons or Muammar Gaddafi had weapons. They would not have met with that miserable fate. So a number of countries are going to think along those lines."

After all, in the case of Russia, the former envoy underlined, the country cannot lose this war. "Russia cannot be defeated only because it is someone with nuclear capability."

"Because if they are down, they will take the Americans along with them. Biden knows in any case the game is up.. it will be all order or complete anarchy."

Ukraine can make a ‘dirty bomb?’

In the latest IAEA report, the UN nuclear watchdog elaborated on nuclear safety in Ukraine. It noted that the nuclear plant Zaporizhzhia NPP, which Russian troops entered on March 4, 2022, remains under Russian control.

On a discussion over the report, the Ambassador said ZaporizhzhiaNPP is an entirely different category and has nothing to do with nuclear weapons.

"It is in terms of energy security. It caters to the bulk of Ukraine's power grid. If these provinces are going to be part of Russia, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donbas province and so on, their economic viability will depend on power supplies and it will help Russia quite a lot."

Going back to the main issue of nuclear threat, the envoy said, "Second aspect is that unless they are not in control…there is always a possibility that Ukraine is a nuclear threshold state. So in these kinds of anarchical conditions, they can always go nuclear and they can always make the dirty bomb."

"Russian raised this in the UNSC and I was asked to come and look into it whether Ukraine is already doing it or not. So, NPP is entirely different, it has nothing to do with nuclear war."

India's steadfast stand on the Russia-Ukraine war

India's position on the Russia-Ukraine war has remained constant. Even under western pressure, India did not waver.

"India has the professionalism to understand what is happening. The confusion arises only in the mind of uninformed people but as far as decision-makers are concerned keep them separate."

He said Indian PM Narendra Modi and Foreign Minister S Jaishankar have all the facts at their disposal.

"They will not get agitated and India's policy towards the war is well-founded on the basis of other larger considerations. Everyone knows it and Jaishankar's remarks at MSC make it abundantly clear that India has understood that this is about the world order."

"The transatlantic alliance cannot dictate any further terms.. that is about western hegemony."

"The war is an unprecedented confrontation between big powers. So, it is an entirely different ball game and world order that is going to prevail in the 21st century and in the coming decades. It is very clear that India's strategic autonomy is well-founded."

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