Destruction, havoc, loss of lives: Why have monsoon rains turned ferocious in North India?

In the last two days, the northern Indian states ofHimachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab and Haryana havereceived extremely heavy monsoon rainfall which had led to the loss of lives, the breaking of bridges, damage to highways and other infrastructure.

According to the India Meteorological Department, till the end of June, there was a 10 per cent deficiency in rainfall, However, in the past week, monsoon surged over the west coast and regions of northern India received twoper cent excess rainfall on July 9.

How much rainfall did North India receive?

Northwest India was battered by 59 per cent excess rainfall; central India received fourper cent excess rainfall, peninsular India remained 23 per centdeficient and 17 per cent deficiency was recorded over east and northeast India, stated the weather office.

Several places in Haryana and Punjab received record rainfall between Saturday and Sunday - Chandigarh at 32 cm; Ambala at 22 cm; Delhi at 15 cm; Nangal at 28 cm; and Ropar at 27 cm – which caused severe flooding. Himachal Pradesh’s Bhuntar region recorded a 10 cm rainfall and Mandi received eightcm rain until 8:30 am on Sunday.

“The Chandigarh observatory was set up in 2009 and prior to that, the figures were taken from the Chandigarh airforce observatory itself. Even the airforce observatory has seen maximum notches going up to 286.0 mm but not as much as the current figures,” stated a senior official of the MET department, while speaking to Indian Express.

Overall, Himachal Pradesh recorded 103.8 mm of rainfall from Saturday to Sunday compared to eightmm, which it normally records, resulting in1,193 per cent of excess rainfall. Meanwhile, Punjab received 57.5 mm of rainfall compared to the normal of 4.6 mm rainfall, which again made it 1,151 per cent of excess rain for the day.

Why such a sudden surge in monsoon rainfall?

As per theIndia Meteorological Department, an interaction between the monsoon trough and a western disturbance has led to heavy rainfall.

IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, speaking to Hindustan Times, said, “The interaction is causing heavy to very heavy rainfall over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, north Punjab and Haryana, Uttarakhand. As forecast by us that there will be good rainfall in July, we have covered the rainfall deficit now. In the past nine days, rainfall was 24 per centexcess for the period in July. Rainfall will gradually reduce over these states from tomorrow onwards."

“This happens because of large-scale systems. We had good monsoon circulation, and at the same time, a western disturbance was passing over the region. So, we had strong westerly winds, along with moist easterly winds from the Bay of Bengal, resulting in the convergence of these two types of winds over northwest India,” he said, as reported by Indian Express.

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Mohapatra said that Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand witnessed maximum intensity of rainfall on Sunday and Jammu and Kashmir faced it on Saturday. “The systems are moving slowly, which is why we saw heavy rainfall in parts of northwest India on Sunday. On Monday, this activity is likely to reduce,” he stated.

Talking about the heavy rainfall spells which broke records in a few parts, Mohapatra stated that the phenomenon is not unusual because heavy and extremely heavy rain is expected during the monsoon.

Heavy downpour – an impact of climate change?

Ministry of Earth Sciences' former secretary, M Rajeevan, said the heavy rains which crumbled parts of northern India can be seen as an important impact of climate change.

“Recent heavy rains & flash floods remind us of one of the important impacts of climate change on monsoons. It rains fewer hours, but when it rains, it rains very heavily. Our forewarning systems & mitigation should further improve. This can happen anywhere,” he tweeted.

“Recent Himachal Pradesh floods remind us of the 2013 Uttarakhand floods with similar synoptic conditions. An active monsoon with strong low-level easterlies bringing plenty of moisture, supported by upper-level divergence due to an eastward-moving trough. These are predictable,” stated the former secretary, while speaking to Hindustan Times.

Explaining the impact of climate change, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Roxy Mathew Koll said, "In a changing climate, we see that hilly areas and surroundings - whether it's the Himalayan foothills or the Western Ghats - are particularly susceptible to heavy rains and landslides. Due to global warming, there's extra moisture, and the hills stop this moisture flow and lift it, which comes down as heavy rains. Some of the regions over India where extreme rains have increased are such places where the rains happen due to orographic lifting.”

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