S&P global predicts modest growth for German car market in 2023

Experts at S&P Global Mobility predict Germany's new car market will recover and turn positive this year. Despite the challenges, the forecast predicts a positive turnaround, though sales are anticipated to remain notably below pre-pandemic levels.

Last year, there were 2.7 million new automobile registrations. Earlier this month, the KBA motor transport authority reported an 18.1 percent increase to 243,277 cars in July, spurred by a 68.9 percent increase in battery electric vehicles (BEV). New registrations increased 13.6 percent year over year to 1.6 million in the first seven months.

While Martin Benecke, Senior Manager, S&P Global Mobility, anticipates new registrations to grow to 2.9 million next year, he does not expect the German auto market to recover to its former highs. Prior to the pandemic and the crisis in Ukraine, Germany had 3.6 million new automobile registrations in 2019.

Bloomberg quoted him as saying, "If things go well, it could reach another 3 million passenger cars. But no more."

Furthermore, long-running shortages of crucial components like semiconductors have lessened, but automakers are still working through their order books.

However, the potential of supply chain bottlenecks returning despite rising demand for electric cars, as well as customers pulling back on spending due to high pricing and a deteriorating global economy, casts doubt on the future.

(Inputs from Bloomberg)

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