Economic Survey 2021: India's timely lockdown strategy saved more than 1 lakh lives

India has transformed the short-term trade-off between lives and livelihoods into a win-win in the medium to long-term that saves both lives and livelihoods, the annual economic survey authored by Chief Economic Advisor Krishnamurthy Subramanian said, in its first chapter.

“By estimating the natural number of cases and deaths expected across countries based on their population, population density, demographics, tests conducted, and the health infrastructure, we compare these estimates with actual numbers to show that India restricted the Covid-19 spread by 37 lakh cases and saved more than 1 lakh lives.”

The survey found a correlation between the stringency of the lockdown and it the number of Covid-19 cases and resultant deaths. It also found a correlation between the lockdown’s stringency and the country’s “V-shaped” recovery. “India thus benefited from successfully pushing the peak of the pandemic curve to September 2020 through the lockdown."

Here are the key highlights so far:

1. India sees FY22 GDP growth at 11%
2. Combined fiscal deficit to exceed target in FY21
3. Growth recovery to be driven by government consumption
4. Agriculture has remained the silver lining.
5. Contact based services, manufacturing, construction hit hardest by the pandemic.
6. Government consumption and net exports have cushioned the growth from diving further down.
7. A V-shaped economic recovery supported by mega vaccination drive.
8. Current account surplus of 2% of GDP likely in FY21.
9. In two years India could be the fastest growing economy as per IMF.
10. CAD estimated at 2% in FY21; that is the first in the 17 years.

(With inputs from agencies)