Recently, in its draft report, the Law Commission of India has backed “one nation, one poll” as an antidote to keeping the country perennially in election mode. According to the panel, such an exercise would save public money, help reduce the burden on the administrative setup and security forces and ensure better implementation of government policies.&nbsp;

This practice, which was there from 1952, got disrupted due to premature dissolution of some State Legislative Assemblies in 1968. Lok Sabha itself was dissolved prematurely in 1970.

Amendments needed

But what exactly is needed to ensure that this does indeed happen? Article 172 in the Indian Constitution about the Duration of State Legislatures states, “Every Legislative Assembly of every State, unless sooner dissolved, shall continue for five years from the date appointed for its first meeting...” However, to hold elections to these Assemblies along with the Lok Sabha election, amendment of Article 172 of the Constitution as well as of Section 14 of the Representation of People Act, 1951 will become necessary. Only in case of premature dissolution of the Assembly, a window of six months is available for the Election Commission to conduct the elections. Simultaneous polls across the nation would be possible only after these constitutional provisions are amended.

Now, amending Article 172 is a laboured possibility. This can be done by passing the requisite bill in Parliament, by the ruling party, followed by the same bill (paving way for simultaneous polls for Lok Sabha and all state Assemblies) being passed in more than half of the states (as BJP controls directly or with partners as many as 19 states today out of 29 State and Union Territory Assemblies), and finally ratified by the President of India.

The other, easier, possibility is that BJP-controlled state Assemblies are dissolved by their respective state governments soon enough, and the Election Commission then is duty-bound to hold fresh elections within six months, by the time we have due date for Lok Sabha polls, and hence, we have simultaneous polls to this extent. So, the considered opinion is that the BJP may go in for simultaneous polls of Lok Sabha and 20 odd states together within the scope of the current constitutional provisions, and this within 120 days from now. Alternatively, if an amendment is made, then the entire nation will have simultaneous polls. This is bound to lead to a political tsunami of sorts.

Why BJP wants it&nbsp;

The BJP is very keen on the move as three concurrent moves by the party have revived the debate on the issue. BJP president Amit Shah has written to the Law Commission seeking its implementation to check expenditure and pull India out of a perpetual election cycle, while Prime Minister Narendra Modi has raised his voice, arguing that “frequent elections impede governance and development,” results in a drag on public exchequer and gives rise to “election fatigue” that is harmful for democracy.&nbsp;

It makes good sense for the BJP to get all Indian states or at least 16 to 18 of them to go along with the Lok Sabha polls and have simultaneous elections. They can then cash in on Opposition’s lack of cohesion, and quell local discontent, especially in Rajasthan and MP, and “presidentialise” the entire election process. The agrarian crisis can be quelled to an extent, more so with partial Minimum Support Price (MSP) being promised and politically there can be a few more regional parties joining pre-poll alliance (AIADMK, TRS, BJD) or at least kept ready for a post-poll alliance if needed.

Rationale for simultaneous polls

A perpetual electoral season has made it impossible for leaders to pursue economic policies that bring long-term rewards when an anti-reform posture appears electorally more beneficial. Political discourse around reforms has become restrictive. Then there is the cost issue. The cost of an election has two components – one, expenditure incurred by the Election Commission and two, expenditure incurred by the political parties. A large number of government employees and public buildings are diverted from their regular responsibilities for election duties.&nbsp;

There are undoubtedly benefits in conducting national and state elections together. Also, the imposition of the Model Code of Conduct every time an election is scheduled delays the implementation of Central and state government welfare schemes, infrastructure projects and takes away time and effort from governance issues.&nbsp;

During elections, political convenience takes precedence over public interest. To lure voters, political parties give in to popular demands without any thought to public interest. Simultaneous elections reduce such opportunity for political parties.

If the elections are to be held simultaneously once in five years, the elected state governments cannot be dismissed easily. This reduces the anomalies created by the Article 356 (President’s Rule) of the Indian constitution and hence, it strengthens federalism.

As the issue stands today, all signs are about India moving towards simultaneous polls for the Lok Sabha and up to 20 states together ahead, or through amendment in all states of the Union of India.

(This article was first published on The DNA. Read the <a href="https://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/column-the-logic-of-simultaneous-polls-2662005">original article</a>.)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

 
&nbsp;

The Law Commission of India has backed “one nation, one poll” as an antidote to keeping the country perennially in election mode.

Recently, in its draft report, the Law Commission of India has backed “one nation, one poll” as an antidote to keeping the country perennially in election mode. According to the panel, such an exercise would save public money, help reduce the burden on the administrative setup and security forces and ensure better implementation of government policies. This practice, which was there from 1952, got disrupted due to premature dissolution of some State Legislative Assemblies in 1968. Lok Sabha itself was dissolved prematurely in 1970. Amendments needed But what exactly is needed to ensure that this does indeed happen? Article 172 in the Indian Constitution about the Duration of State Legislatures states, “Every Legislative Assembly of every State, unless sooner dissolved, shall continue for five years from the date appointed for its first meeting...” However, to hold elections to these Assemblies along with the Lok Sabha election, amendment of Article 172 of the Constitution as well as of Section 14 of the Representation of People Act, 1951 will become necessary. Only in case of premature dissolution of the Assembly, a window of six months is available for the Election Commission to conduct the elections. Simultaneous polls across the nation would be possible only after these constitutional provisions are amended. Now, amending Article 172 is a laboured possibility. This can be done by passing the requisite bill in Parliament, by the ruling party, followed by the same bill (paving way for simultaneous polls for Lok Sabha and all state Assemblies) being passed in more than half of the states (as BJP controls directly or with partners as many as 19 states today out of 29 State and Union Territory Assemblies), and finally ratified by the President of India. The other, easier, possibility is that BJP-controlled state Assemblies are dissolved by their respective state governments soon enough, and the Election Commission then is duty-bound to hold fresh elections within six months, by the time we have due date for Lok Sabha polls, and hence, we have simultaneous polls to this extent. So, the considered opinion is that the BJP may go in for simultaneous polls of Lok Sabha and 20 odd states together within the scope of the current constitutional provisions, and this within 120 days from now. Alternatively, if an amendment is made, then the entire nation will have simultaneous polls. This is bound to lead to a political tsunami of sorts. Why BJP wants it The BJP is very keen on the move as three concurrent moves by the party have revived the debate on the issue. BJP president Amit Shah has written to the Law Commission seeking its implementation to check expenditure and pull India out of a perpetual election cycle, while Prime Minister Narendra Modi has raised his voice, arguing that “frequent elections impede governance and development,” results in a drag on public exchequer and gives rise to “election fatigue” that is harmful for democracy. It makes good sense for the BJP to get all Indian states or at least 16 to 18 of them to go along with the Lok Sabha polls and have simultaneous elections. They can then cash in on Opposition’s lack of cohesion, and quell local discontent, especially in Rajasthan and MP, and “presidentialise” the entire election process. The agrarian crisis can be quelled to an extent, more so with partial Minimum Support Price (MSP) being promised and politically there can be a few more regional parties joining pre-poll alliance (AIADMK, TRS, BJD) or at least kept ready for a post-poll alliance if needed. Rationale for simultaneous polls A perpetual electoral season has made it impossible for leaders to pursue economic policies that bring long-term rewards when an anti-reform posture appears electorally more beneficial. Political discourse around reforms has become restrictive. Then there is the cost issue. The cost of an election has two components – one, expenditure incurred by the Election Commission and two, expenditure incurred by the political parties. A large number of government employees and public buildings are diverted from their regular responsibilities for election duties. There are undoubtedly benefits in conducting national and state elections together. Also, the imposition of the Model Code of Conduct every time an election is scheduled delays the implementation of Central and state government welfare schemes, infrastructure projects and takes away time and effort from governance issues. During elections, political convenience takes precedence over public interest. To lure voters, political parties give in to popular demands without any thought to public interest. Simultaneous elections reduce such opportunity for political parties. If the elections are to be held simultaneously once in five years, the elected state governments cannot be dismissed easily. This reduces the anomalies created by the Article 356 (President’s Rule) of the Indian constitution and hence, it strengthens federalism. As the issue stands today, all signs are about India moving towards simultaneous polls for the Lok Sabha and up to 20 states together ahead, or through amendment in all states of the Union of India. (This article was first published on The DNA. Read the original article.) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Opinion: The logic of simultaneous polls

The recent victory of Harivansh Narayan Singh as Deputy Chairman of the Rajya Sabha shows that within and outside the Parliament, the Modi-Shah combine remains powerful, ruthless and capable of last-minute surprises, through sam, dam, dand and bhed. Politics is not for the faint-hearted and winning has become a habit that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP president Amit Shah have acquired, as they proved once again.&nbsp;

The fallout of Singh’s victory throws up a number of interesting points. Apart from showcasing the might of the BJP, it also shows that its allies in the NDA are just bargaining hard without any desire to desert the Modi-Shah camp. Also, any possible tensions between the BJP and the JD(U) were finally put to rest with Nitish Kumar’s candidate being elected. The Bihar chief minister personally contacted several parties, many of whom “helped” him to see his “Man Friday” win.&nbsp;

The other interesting thing to note was the stance taken by the Shiv Sena in the election. The party which voted for the Congress presidential candidate Pratibha Patil in the past on the grounds that she was a Maharashtrian, did not have the same thinking when the name of Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) candidate Vandana Chavan came up as the united Opposition’s candidate.&nbsp;

This was despite the fact that she had been a very efficient former Pune Mayor. As a result, she had to withdraw and BK Hariprasad from the Congress party was put up by the Opposition. The Sena, which claims that it will go alone in the forthcoming Lok Sabha and Maharashtra Vidhan Sabha elections, did not even abstain, but actually voted for the ruling-coalition’s candidate as Rajya Sabha deputy chairman. The Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), which also had its own long-term parliamentarian, Naresh Gujral, as a probable candidate for this post, swallowed its pride and voted for the NDA’s candidate. So, it is clear that the JD(U), the Shiv Sena and the SAD have nowhere else to go in 2019.

Such stances are good indicators on what parties are likely to do in 2019 if the major parties do not get an outright majority. The “fence-sitters” — Biju Janata Dal (BJD), Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS), AIADMK and YSR Congress — are in all probability likely to join the NDA, if they win in their respective states. The AIADMK, which has been broken virtually into three camps post Jayalalitha’s demise, is most likely to be within the NDA, should the need arise. The party has little choice as it faces a resurgent DMK, which, in spite of the death of M Karunanidhi, is in a stronger position as their succession plan with Stalin is in place. For the BJD and TRS, it is pure opportunism and the fact that they see the Congress as a bigger threat than the BJP in their respective states, Odisha and Telangana.&nbsp;

Coming to the Opposition parties, it is clear that the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) will not go with the BJP, but the Congress is still not ready to do business with AAP in Delhi, Punjab and Haryana where the party has some influence. The AAP and Congress going their separate ways in these three states in the Lok Sabha polls is an automatic advantage for the BJP, which the Congress leadership — blinded by Ajay Maken in Delhi and Captain Amarinder Singh in Punjab — has so far failed to understand.&nbsp;

The situation between AAP and the Congress shows that a “Grand &nbsp;Opposition” is just a lot of rhetoric with no clear agenda or common minimum programme in place. So, though parties are basking in the glory of a BSP-SP-Congress-RLD coming together in Uttar Pradesh and the Trinamool Congress (TMC) reportedly ready to do business with Congress in Bengal, the Opposition, to remain relevant in the fray for 2019, must urgently put up an agenda of governance, catering to regional aspirations and demands.&nbsp;

The concerned parties also need to look at better ways to target groups like farmers, Dalits, minorities and Armed Forces’ veterans in various parts of the country, all of whom have shown their anger against the government. So far though, they have no clear agenda for them.&nbsp;

As a result, a one-on-one contest between the BJP and a so-called “United Opposition” is a myth. As the situation stands, there are likely to be triangular contests in many states — by virtue of the nature of parties and their unclear strategies there (like Odisha, Jammu and Kashmir, Kerala, etc.), and also due to the fact that a direct contest may actually benefit the BJP in states like West Bengal, and &nbsp;some of the states in the Northeast.

The last major point to note is that 2019 will be decided by key states. It is to be noted that Maharashtra, UP, Bihar, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu are the states, which will hold the key to the formation of the next government. Both the NDA and the Opposition would do well to specifically recognise the main regional parties from these states and their aspirations as they hold the key to the results more than ever before. This was demonstrated in the Rajya Sabha election.

But before the grand finale, there are state elections to consider. So, now, as the battle shifts from Parliament to the heat, dust and rains of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, the pressure is on the Congress, which has to take on the BJP in these states. How the Congress will take along the BSP and the Left with it in these states and how effectively it can cash in on some amount of perceived anti-incumbency in all these BJP-governed states, will determine the contours of a possible “United Opposition”, and its chances ahead. So far, though, with a little over 100 days to go and no Congress alliance or agenda in place, the prospects for the Grand Old Party look bleak.&nbsp; 
 
(Ujjwal K Chowdhury is a media academic and a columnist)

(This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the original article.)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

&nbsp;

It is to be noted that Maharashtra, UP, Bihar, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu are the states, which will hold the key to the formation of the next government.

The recent victory of Harivansh Narayan Singh as Deputy Chairman of the Rajya Sabha shows that within and outside the Parliament, the Modi-Shah combine remains powerful, ruthless and capable of last-minute surprises, through sam, dam, dand and bhed. Politics is not for the faint-hearted and winning has become a habit that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP president Amit Shah have acquired, as they proved once again. The fallout of Singh’s victory throws up a number of interesting points. Apart from showcasing the might of the BJP, it also shows that its allies in the NDA are just bargaining hard without any desire to desert the Modi-Shah camp. Also, any possible tensions between the BJP and the JD(U) were finally put to rest with Nitish Kumar’s candidate being elected. The Bihar chief minister personally contacted several parties, many of whom “helped” him to see his “Man Friday” win. The other interesting thing to note was the stance taken by the Shiv Sena in the election. The party which voted for the Congress presidential candidate Pratibha Patil in the past on the grounds that she was a Maharashtrian, did not have the same thinking when the name of Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) candidate Vandana Chavan came up as the united Opposition’s candidate. This was despite the fact that she had been a very efficient former Pune Mayor. As a result, she had to withdraw and BK Hariprasad from the Congress party was put up by the Opposition. The Sena, which claims that it will go alone in the forthcoming Lok Sabha and Maharashtra Vidhan Sabha elections, did not even abstain, but actually voted for the ruling-coalition’s candidate as Rajya Sabha deputy chairman. The Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), which also had its own long-term parliamentarian, Naresh Gujral, as a probable candidate for this post, swallowed its pride and voted for the NDA’s candidate. So, it is clear that the JD(U), the Shiv Sena and the SAD have nowhere else to go in 2019. Such stances are good indicators on what parties are likely to do in 2019 if the major parties do not get an outright majority. The “fence-sitters” — Biju Janata Dal (BJD), Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS), AIADMK and YSR Congress — are in all probability likely to join the NDA, if they win in their respective states. The AIADMK, which has been broken virtually into three camps post Jayalalitha’s demise, is most likely to be within the NDA, should the need arise. The party has little choice as it faces a resurgent DMK, which, in spite of the death of M Karunanidhi, is in a stronger position as their succession plan with Stalin is in place. For the BJD and TRS, it is pure opportunism and the fact that they see the Congress as a bigger threat than the BJP in their respective states, Odisha and Telangana. Coming to the Opposition parties, it is clear that the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) will not go with the BJP, but the Congress is still not ready to do business with AAP in Delhi, Punjab and Haryana where the party has some influence. The AAP and Congress going their separate ways in these three states in the Lok Sabha polls is an automatic advantage for the BJP, which the Congress leadership — blinded by Ajay Maken in Delhi and Captain Amarinder Singh in Punjab — has so far failed to understand. The situation between AAP and the Congress shows that a “Grand Opposition” is just a lot of rhetoric with no clear agenda or common minimum programme in place. So, though parties are basking in the glory of a BSP-SP-Congress-RLD coming together in Uttar Pradesh and the Trinamool Congress (TMC) reportedly ready to do business with Congress in Bengal, the Opposition, to remain relevant in the fray for 2019, must urgently put up an agenda of governance, catering to regional aspirations and demands. The concerned parties also need to look at better ways to target groups like farmers, Dalits, minorities and Armed Forces’ veterans in various parts of the country, all of whom have shown their anger against the government. So far though, they have no clear agenda for them. As a result, a one-on-one contest between the BJP and a so-called “United Opposition” is a myth. As the situation stands, there are likely to be triangular contests in many states — by virtue of the nature of parties and their unclear strategies there (like Odisha, Jammu and Kashmir, Kerala, etc.), and also due to the fact that a direct contest may actually benefit the BJP in states like West Bengal, and some of the states in the Northeast. The last major point to note is that 2019 will be decided by key states. It is to be noted that Maharashtra, UP, Bihar, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu are the states, which will hold the key to the formation of the next government. Both the NDA and the Opposition would do well to specifically recognise the main regional parties from these states and their aspirations as they hold the key to the results more than ever before. This was demonstrated in the Rajya Sabha election. But before the grand finale, there are state elections to consider. So, now, as the battle shifts from Parliament to the heat, dust and rains of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, the pressure is on the Congress, which has to take on the BJP in these states. How the Congress will take along the BSP and the Left with it in these states and how effectively it can cash in on some amount of perceived anti-incumbency in all these BJP-governed states, will determine the contours of a possible “United Opposition”, and its chances ahead. So far, though, with a little over 100 days to go and no Congress alliance or agenda in place, the prospects for the Grand Old Party look bleak. (Ujjwal K Chowdhury is a media academic and a columnist) (This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the original article.) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Opinion: What to expect from 2019 elections

Author

Zee News Rajasthan

Editor

Ujjwal K Chowdhury

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