‘Planet-killer’: Scientists flag massive asteroid racing towards Earth! Will it collide?

Produced by Tarun Mishra

Potential Impact

A newly discovered asteroid, 2024 YR4, has been flagged by astronomers due to its potential to collide with Earth. Currently, the asteroid has a 1.6% chance of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032, according to NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory calculations.

Initial Detection

The asteroid was first observed on December 27, 2024, by the El Sauce Observatory in Chile. Initial observations suggested it was large, with a diameter ranging from 130 to 300 feet (40 to 90 meters). Since then, scientists have been closely monitoring its trajectory.

Potential Impact Zones

If the asteroid does collide with Earth, possible impact locations include the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and parts of South Asia. These regions could experience significant destruction depending on the impact's location.

City-Killer

Asteroid 2024 YR4 is classified as a "city killer" due to its size and energy potential. An explosion from this asteroid would release an energy equivalent to about eight megatons of TNT—more than 500 times the energy of the Hiroshima bomb. Experts compare the potential explosion to the 1908 Tunguska Event, where a smaller asteroid flattened a vast area in Siberia.

Immediate Threat

Despite its potential, experts emphasise that the likelihood of impact remains low, and it is moving away from Earth. Its next close pass will not occur until 2028, and it is expected that the probability of impact will decrease over time as further observations are made.

Divert the Asteroid

Scientists have proposed various methods for deflecting the asteroid if it becomes a more significant threat. Techniques like kinetic impactors (as tested by NASA's 2022 DART mission), lasers to vaporise parts of the asteroid, or gravitational tugs from spacecraft could be used to alter its course.

Preparedness and Reassurance

Although the asteroid poses a theoretical risk, experts reassure the public that sufficient time remains for preparation. With ongoing observations and potential mitigation strategies, authorities could evacuate impact zones if necessary. Experts stress that current projections do not indicate an immediate cause for concern.