Asteroid 2024 YR4 is projected to pass through the solar system in 2032. Current calculations indicate a 97.9 per cent chance of it passing safely by Earth, with a 2.1 per cent probability of impact on 22 December 2032.
Scientists have mapped potential impact locations based on its trajectory and velocity. The asteroid could strike regions in northern South America, the Pacific Ocean, southern Asia, the Arabian Sea, and parts of Africa. Countries at risk include India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Sudan, Nigeria, Venezuela, Colombia, and Ecuador.
Discovered in December 2024, 2024 YR4 measures between 130 and 300 feet in diameter. It is classified as a level 3 threat on the Torino Scale, making it the most significant asteroid risk since Apophis, which is set to pass Earth safely in 2029.
If 2024 YR4 collides with Earth, it could generate an explosion equivalent to 8 million tonnes of TNT, about 500 times stronger than the Hiroshima atomic bomb. The impact radius could extend up to 50 kilometres, depending on where it strikes.
Early warning systems could provide time for evacuation in high-risk regions. Asteroid expert Teddy Kareta from Lowell Observatory has stated that the likelihood of impact remains low, and precautionary measures could be taken if necessary.
In 2004, Apophis was initially considered a high-risk asteroid with a 2.7% probability of impact. However, further analysis ruled out any threat. Experts continue to monitor 2024 YR4 to refine its trajectory predictions.
The United Nations has activated planetary defence protocols to track the asteroid. Scientists are evaluating deflection strategies, including kinetic impact technology, which was successfully demonstrated in NASA’s 2023 DART mission to alter an asteroid’s path.