'Arabian sea and Mumbai': NASA identifies possible Asteroid YR4 strike zone that could destroy Earth
Produced by Tarun Mishra
Produced by Tarun Mishra
NASA has released updated data suggesting that asteroid 2024 YR4 could pose a potential threat to some of the world’s most densely populated areas. The agency has raised the estimated risk of impact in 2032 to 3.1 per cent, the highest ever recorded for a detected asteroid.
The asteroid’s possible impact zone, or “risk corridor,” extends across the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia (India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Afghanistan, Bangladesh). Major cities along this path include Bogotá, Mumbai, and Dhaka, each with millions of residents.
The European Space Agency (ESA) has assessed the impact probability at 2.8 per cent, a higher threat level than that of asteroid Apophis in 2004. Initial concerns about Apophis striking Earth in 2029 were dismissed following further observations.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first detected on 27 December 2024 by a NASA-funded telescope in Rio Hurtado, Chile. Scientists identified it after its close approach to Earth on Christmas Day. Its exact trajectory remains uncertain, requiring further analysis.
Researchers estimate the asteroid’s size to be between 40 and 90 metres. At its largest estimate, it would be comparable in height to the Statue of Liberty. It has been rated 3 out of 10 on the Torino Scale, making it the only asteroid currently ranked above zero in impact risk.
NASA will continue tracking 2024 YR4 until April 2025, after which it will become too distant for observation until June 2028. The James Webb Space Telescope will attempt to determine its precise size in March 2025, refining impact predictions.
If the impact threat increases, global emergency response teams will be alerted, with support from ESA’s Near-Earth Object Coordination Centre. Space agencies could consider planetary defence missions, similar to NASA’s 2022 DART mission, which successfully altered the orbit of an asteroid.
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