'An asteroid is coming': Humans could face dinosaur type extinction level event if...
Produced by Tarun Mishra
Produced by Tarun Mishra
A newly released animation from NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) provides a detailed look at asteroid 2024 YR4. This space rock, estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet wide, has a more than 1% chance of colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032.
According to NASA, no other currently known large asteroid has an impact probability exceeding 1%. While the likelihood of impact remains low at just over 1%, NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) considers this threshold significant for tracking potential risks. The size of the asteroid is significant enough to cause a dinosaur level extinction level event for humanity.
NASA’s JPL has classified 2024 YR4 as a Level 3 threat on the Torino Scale, a system used to assess asteroid impact risks. This rating is uncommon and indicates a situation that requires continuous observation as more data becomes available.
Scientists monitoring 2024 YR4 have noted a slow rise in its impact probability since its discovery. On January 27, the probability surpassed 1%, prompting further analysis of its trajectory and possible impact locations.
If the asteroid were to be on a collision course, it could impact a broad area along a risk corridor that includes the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia.
The estimated size of 2024 YR4 is derived from its brightness in observations. More precise measurements would require thermal infrared data, radar observations, or close-up imagery from a spacecraft.
NASA reports that 2024 YR4 has a 0% chance of impact during its next orbit in 2028, but this close approach may provide additional data to refine its future trajectory. As new observations come in, the asteroid's risk assessment could be revised.
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