AI capable of predicting massive solar storms before they hit Earth: Study
Produced by Tarun Mishra
Produced by Tarun Mishra
The Sun, often perceived as a stable entity, is in fact a constantly changing mass of plasma influenced by its magnetic field. Solar physicists face challenges in predicting the Sun's activities, especially coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which can have uncertain impacts on Earth.
CMEs are large bursts of plasma ejected from the Sun’s corona due to disturbances in the Sun’s magnetic field. These events can cause geomagnetic storms on Earth, impacting satellite communication, GPS, and power grids. They are also responsible for auroral displays like the northern and southern lights.
A team of astronomers, led by Sabrina Guastavino from the University of Genoa, has applied artificial intelligence (AI) to predict solar flares and CMEs. Their approach utilises machine learning algorithms trained on decades of solar data to uncover complex patterns and forecast solar events.
The research team tested their AI model on the solar events of May 2024, which included an intense X8.7 flare from the AR13664 region. The AI system aimed to predict the timing of solar flares, CME production, and the resulting geomagnetic storms.
According to the study, AI provided unprecedented accuracy in forecasting solar activity, significantly reducing uncertainties compared to traditional methods. The prediction of CME travel times and the onset of geomagnetic storms was notably precise.
The ability to accurately predict CMEs could help mitigate their effects on Earth’s power grids, communication systems, and satellites. Early warnings would allow for better preparation and reduce disruptions caused by solar storms.
In addition to practical benefits, the AI model may also improve predictions for auroral activity, offering skywatchers more reliable forecasts for observing the northern and southern lights.
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