'US vs Israel': Can air defence systems protect Tehran from air strikes?

The primary challenge for Tehran's air defence is the F-35 Lightning II, operated by both the US and Israel. These fifth-generation stealth aircraft are designed to evade radar detection, allowing them to penetrate deep into hostile airspace before being tracked. During the October 2024 strikes, reports indicated that Israeli jets successfully bypassed Iranian defences to hit sensitive military targets. Tehran faces the daunting task of detecting these 'invisible' intruders before they strike critical infrastructure.

For years, Iran relied on the Russian-supplied S-300 PMU2 as its long-range defensive backbone. However, precision airstrikes by Israel in late 2024 reportedly destroyed the last remaining active batteries of this system. This loss left a significant gap in Tehran's protective umbrella, forcing the country to pivot rapidly to domestic alternatives. The destruction of the S-300s exposed the vulnerability of older Russian technology against modern Western electronic warfare and stand-off munitions.

Tehran claims its locally developed Bavar-373 system rivals the Russian S-400 and the American Patriot. Armed with Sayyad-4B missiles, it reportedly has a range of over 300 kilometres and can engage targets at high altitudes. Iranian officials assert this system can detect and lock onto stealth aircraft, though these claims remain largely unverified in high-intensity combat. The Bavar-373 is now the cornerstone of Iran's strategy to deny airspace to US and Israeli jets.

Supporting the long-range systems is the 15th Khordad, a medium-range air defence system capable of engaging multiple targets simultaneously. Equipped with a passive phased array radar, it is designed to detect fighter jets and cruise missiles up to 150 kilometres away. This system adds a crucial layer to Tehran's defence, aiming to overwhelm incoming threats that might bypass the outer shields. Its mobility allows Iranian forces to constantly shift positions, making it harder for enemies to target.

While high-altitude defence gets the spotlight, low-flying cruise missiles pose a unique danger to Tehran. To counter this, Iran has deployed short-range systems like the Tor-M1 and the new 'Azarakhsh' low-altitude system. These units are tasked with intercepting threats that hug the terrain to avoid radar detection. However, the sheer volume of a potential US or Israeli missile barrage could oversaturate these point-defence systems, leaving key sites exposed.

Modern air war is not just about missiles; it is about blinding the enemy's sensors. US and Israeli forces possess advanced electronic warfare (EW) capabilities that can jam or spoof Iranian radars. If Tehran's command and control network is disrupted by cyber or EW attacks, its missile batteries effectively become blind. Iran has invested in anti-jamming technology, but the technological gap with the West remains a critical vulnerability in a full-scale conflict.

Despite significant advancements in indigenous technology, Tehran's air defence network remains untested against a sustained, full-scale campaign. The successful strikes in 2024 demonstrated that gaps exist, particularly against stealth platforms and advanced jamming. While systems like the Bavar-373 have improved Iran's theoretical capabilities, guarding against the combined air power of the US and Israel is an immense challenge. Total protection against such technologically superior adversaries remains uncertain.