New Delhi

Oil prices seesawed Monday following an apparent assassination attempt on Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, and ahead of China's Third Plenum.

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Brent crude changed hands near $85 a barrel, as West Texas Intermediate remained above $82. The attack on Trump heaped further uncertainty into the race for the US presidency, thereby bolstering the dollar. Making dollar-priced commodities, including oil, more expensive.

Despite the volatility, oil prices remained significantly higher for the year, underpinned by the OPEC+ production cuts and robust fuel demand in the Northern Hemisphere's summer season. The investment world will look out for the Chinese Communist Party's Third Plenum this week, which is expected to show hints of the country's economic and political priorities, as it remains the world's largest crude importer.

China's appetite for raw materials, including crude oil, has waned in the first half of the year, putting a huge question mark on future demand. GDP growth slipped to its weakest in five quarters, while the International Energy Agency indicated that China's slackening economy may dampen global oil consumption growth.

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“It’s not surprising following the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump over the weekend that we are seeing a stronger US dollar, and that strength is weighing on oil,” said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy for ING Groep NV. “In addition, the market is also coming around to the idea that Chinese oil demand could very well disappoint this year.”

Nevertheless, timespreads suggest strong near-term demand. The gap between Brent's two nearest contracts remained in a bullish, backwardated structure, with the nearest contract trading at a premium over the later-dated one. At 95 cents a barrel, it’s almost double what it was a month ago.

The oil market is sailing through stormy seas of geopolitical events and a maze of economic indicators. The attempted assassination of Trump and China's Third Plenum added significant uncertainty, while the underlying signals of demand remained strong. Market participants will keenly watch these factors as China's trajectory becomes clearer.