Doklam was a setback, China keen on teaching India a lesson
Has the standoff over Doklam deflated the Chinese balloon? Deflated yes, not punctured.
It's vital, we understand the difference.
India has deflated the perception assiduously propagated by the Chinese media that their country is America's equal. If that was the case, what explains the Indian wall it has run up against on the Doklam plateau.
China has dredged up artificial islands, laid airfields and stocked up with every manner of weapons and equipment.
The same Indian wall is being closely watched across a broad swathe of the South China Sea where China has dredged up artificial islands, laid airfields and stocked up with every manner of weapons and equipment. The wall has drawn the attention of South China Sea littoral states which are unable to stand up to China's naval muscle or are seduced by its money power.
But this has only deflated the Dragon not punctured it.
China watchers say - the debate in Beijing is probably about their lack of proper appreciation of the environment. Meaning, the PLA did not anticipate the manner in which India would respond to the move to lay a road through the Doklam Plateau.
Until now all India-China standoffs have been 'strictly bilateral', meaning it has always been about one side claiming territory held or claimed by the other.
That tells us something about Chinese military thinking, an element of overconfidence perhaps, which encouraged the perception that India would stand down. Are we being unfair here? Until now all India-China standoffs have been 'strictly bilateral', meaning it has always been about one side claiming territory held or claimed by the other. In that sense, India standing up for a third country may have appeared far-fetched.
What's clear is that the Chinese will neither forgive nor forget what India has done to them in Doklam.
China analysts like Jayadev Ranade believe the politicians in Beijing are under pressure from the PLA to take off the restraints and allow them to go against India. Apparently, some of this pressure is emanating from the Western Theatre Command tasked with securing the Indian frontier which also includes Bhutan.
What, therefore, can they be expected to do? That's hard to predict but China watchers say Beijing's Mandarins will try to extract their pound of flesh from India perhaps not now, maybe later at a time and place of their choosing. The location could range anywhere from Ladakh and Himachal to Arunachal and even Sikkim. A former Northern Army Commander Gen. H.S. Panag has hinted this could even take place sometime in winter, could involve China's range of rocket artillery and even cyber weapons.
It's interesting to examine the efforts by President Xi Jinping to transform the lumbering, a top heavy land dominated military into a nimble integrated force capable of fighting and winning 'local wars under hi-tech conditions'.
Ranade believes any action by the Chinese would be limited in scope and duration with the aim of teaching India a lesson. In that context, it's interesting to examine the efforts by President Xi Jinping to transform the lumbering, a top heavy land dominated military into a nimble integrated force capable of fighting and winning 'local wars under hi-tech conditions'.
Srikanth Kondapalli, who teaches China at Delhi's Jawaharlal Nehru University, says, "The objective is not to occupy territory but paralyse the adversary and for this, you need the concentration of firepower, air force, artillery in one area of mobilisation. They are raising 40 Rapid Response Units and an airborne corps for transporting troops."
The dilemma for President Xi is whether his newly transformed military can be trusted to deliver in a limited action against India. More important, can the military ensure this does not escalate, that India does not escalate? The word from military analysts here is India will escalate!